Michigan’s political climate and economy is much better than it was four years ago. Presently, Governor Snyder holds a slim lead (+2) in the polls over challenger Mark Schauer and RealClearPolitics calls the race a toss-up. In addition, the GOP is expected to have momentum trend through November. While Democrats may pick up a few seats, consequently narrowing margins, there are only a few (10-12) toss-up seats. Republicans are expected to maintain control of the State House and State Senate.
Post November 4, questions loom large around House Speaker and Senate Majority Leader as both bodies will look to replace leadership.
Another post primary development will be the total number, emergence and impact of a tea party wing in the Republican party, particularly in a State House GOP majority. A main street GOP/Tea Party split could provide governance challenges in a Snyder 2nd term.